The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has released its monthly outlook for June 2025, indicating that the heart of the rainy season has arrived in many parts of the country.
While the southern and central states will experience frequent rains and thunderstorms, northern Nigeria will see a gradual onset of rainfall as the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) shifts northward.
According to NiMet, the ITD—a key driver of rainfall across the country—is expected to reach between 14°N and 16°N by late June, bringing increased rainfall to the far north.
Below-Normal Rainfall in Some Areas
Despite the overall wet season outlook, NiMet warns that some areas could experience below-normal rainfall, raising concerns about dry spells.
The agency estimates a 40–50% chance of below-average rainfall in states including Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa, Benue, Taraba, Adamawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Edo, Delta, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Additionally, Ekiti, Osun, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, and Lagos are expected to have a 50–60% chance of significantly below-normal rainfall.
Flash Flood Concerns and Localised Heavy Rainfall
NiMet has cautioned that some parts of northern Nigeria—including Nasarawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, and the FCT—may see very heavy rainfall over short periods. These intense rain events could trigger flash flooding in vulnerable areas.
Temperature and Health Impacts
Temperatures are forecast to be generally mild across much of Nigeria, although northern states such as Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, and Zamfara may experience occasional hot spells.
The cooler weather is expected to be favourable for the storage of pharmaceutical products, minimising risks to health-sensitive supplies. NiMet also predicts a low risk of malaria transmission in central and southern regions.
NiMet has urged farmers to adopt climate-smart farming techniques and to stay updated with daily and weekly weather updates to manage the impact of potential dry spells.
Dam operators and water managers are encouraged to monitor water levels closely and prepare for fluctuations that may occur during the rainy season.
The agency reaffirmed its commitment to providing accurate and timely forecasts to support public safety and planning efforts.
In late May 2025, Mokwa in Niger State, Nigeria, experienced catastrophic flooding following several hours of torrential rainfall beginning on the night of May 28.
As of June 1, 2025, the death toll has surpassed 200, with over 500 individuals reported missing. At least 121 people have been hospitalised due to injuries sustained during the disaster.
More than 3,000 residents have been displaced, with over 500 households affected across the three communities.
