By Abidemi Adebamiwa
The International Monetary Fund has urged Nigeria to revise its ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget downward in response to weakening oil revenues. It also recommends continued tight monetary policy and high interest rates until inflation further slows. These suggestions may appear sound within orthodox economic models, but for most Nigerians, they are a recipe for deeper suffering.
Yes, inflation has decelerated—from an average of 31% in 2024 to 22.97% by May 2025. But that improvement hasn’t reached the dinner table. Food prices remain brutal. Over 33% of Nigerians are officially unemployed, and more than 130 million people live in multidimensional poverty. Behind every number is a family skipping meals, a child pulled out of school, or a shopkeeper forced to shutter their store.
One of the most damaging constraints in today’s economy isn’t the lack of money—it’s the inability to access it. Most banks avoid lending to those who need credit most. When they do, they slap on interest rates of 27% to 30% and demand collateral far exceeding the value of the loan. It’s a system that locks out the very people who could drive recovery.
Credit is the oxygen of an economy. Without it, farmers don’t plant, factories sit idle, and markets shrink. Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke—an expert on financial crises—once observed that the core problem isn’t always overspending, but when capable people can’t borrow. Nigeria is falling squarely into that trap.
There is a way out. By reallocating just 3% of the national budget—₦1.65 trillion—the government could establish a national loan guarantee fund. This fund would cover the first ₦10 million in loan risk per borrower, giving commercial banks the confidence to extend credit to those who actually produce. With an average loan size of ₦1 million, such a move could unlock financing for 1.65 million small-scale farmers, cooperatives, and traders. Even if just two-thirds of those efforts succeed, that’s over a million new jobs.
The revenue return is clear. Increased employment expands the tax base. New businesses generate more goods, services, and local demand. Social safety nets face less pressure. That ₦1.65 trillion doesn’t vanish—it circulates, stimulates, and ultimately strengthens the economy.
Meanwhile, the IMF’s warning about Nigeria’s fiscal deficit possibly rising from 4.1% to 4.7% of GDP amounts to a difference of roughly ₦660 billion. That figure is modest compared to the trillions lost annually to inefficiencies and leakages. It’s also less than what a single thriving sector—such as agriculture, construction, or telecoms—can contribute if properly enabled.
If austerity deepens poverty and chokes productivity, then even those advocating restraint today will soon label the country “unstable” tomorrow. But the burden won’t fall on spreadsheets. It will fall on people.
Nigeria doesn’t need to blindly follow rigid templates drawn up in distant boardrooms. It needs a tailored approach that empowers its own citizens. The economy cannot grow if credit is frozen. The people cannot thrive without opportunity. And the nation cannot progress on fiscal neatness alone.
We don’t need applause from global observers. We need access—for those ready to build, employ, feed, and innovate. Let’s open the gates, not seal them.
Abidemi Adebamiwa is the
Managing Editor @ Newspot Nigeria
